Poll: Affirmative Action Would Die if Put to a Vote

 BY BRAD BENNETT
 bbennett@herald.com

 No matter what you call it, most Floridians want to get rid of affirmative action.

 A poll by The Herald and The St. Petersburg Times shows that Florida voters, by
 a margin of more than two to one, would ban public race and gender preferences.

 When the issue was labeled specifically as affirmative action, the margin
 increased to four to one.

 The margin is slightly narrower in heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade, but Broward
 County voters closely mirror the state's sentiments.

 ``I just believe that people should be qualified, not necessarily get a position just
 because they're black or white or yellow or whatever,'' said Olga Sweeney, 68, a
 white Plantation woman who works in the produce department at Publix in
 Deerfield Beach.

 Sweeney said her son, a Vietnam War veteran, found it difficult to get a civilian
 job because minorities were selected over him on the basis of race.

 The survey is another indication that the state's affirmative action programs could
 be in trouble if supporters of a measure to prohibit such programs are successful
 in having their proposal put on the November ballot. Last month, the group passed
 the first hurdle by gathering enough signatures from voters -- 43,536 -- to have its
 measure's wording reviewed by the state Supreme Court.

 If the court approves the wording, the group would then need to collect an
 additional 400,000 signatures to have the measure placed on the ballot.

 ``If the election were held tomorrow, it's clear to me that voters would support the
 passage of this referendum,'' said Rob Schroth, a veteran Washington pollster
 who conducted the survey. ``Those who are organizing to defeat this certainly
 have their work cut out for them.''

 Supporters of the proposal hailed the survey as another victory and, for the first
 time, said they favor some affirmative action programs that help economically and
 socially disadvantaged people -- as long as they don't target race and gender.

 ``We recognize that there's a lot of people that need help,'' said Herb Harmon,
 campaign manager for the Florida Civil Rights Initiative, which is seeking approval
 of the ballot measure, which was first proposed by Californian Ward Connerly, the
 nation's No. 1 foe of racial preferences.

 ``But it's unfair to administer that help strictly on the basis of race,'' Harmon said.
 ``Just because you're a woman doesn't mean you're disadvantaged. And just
 because you're Asian, Hispanic, African American doesn't mean you're
 automatically disadvantaged.''

 Opponents of the Connerly measure say its language, which seeks to ban race
 and gender preferences, is misleading, fooling voters into thinking it will end
 discrimination while actually reducing opportunities for minorities and women.

 ``It is very clear that this is deceptive language,'' said Leon Russell, the state
 NAACP president and chairman of Floridians Representing Equity and Equality,
 or FREE.

 FREE comprises the NAACP, the National Organization for Women, the Hispanic
 Bar Association and other special-interest groups seeking to preserve affirmative
 action.

 The survey by Schroth & Associates asked 600 voters across the state two
 questions about affirmative action.

 The first relied on the language of the proposed ballot measure, asking voters:
 ``Do you plan to vote for or against a referendum question on next year's ballot
 that would bar state and local governments from treating people differently based
 on race, sex, color or ethnicity or national origin in the operation of government
 contracting, hiring and state university admissions?''

 Sixty percent of the respondents answered that they would favor such a proposal.
 Only 26 percent said they would oppose the measure, with 14 percent undecided.

 Later, respondents were asked a question using the words ``affirmative action'':

 POLL QUESTIONS

 ``Which of the following is closest to your opinion?'' the later question asked:

 ``I support affirmative action because I believe it ensures fairness and equality for
 all Floridians, and because race and gender should be considered in government
 hiring and college admissions in order to help eliminate discrimination against
 racial minorities and women.

 ``Or I oppose affirmative action because I believe that government hiring and
 college admissions should not be influenced by a person's race or gender. A
 person's ability is the only issue that should matter.''

 In response to this question, 75 percent said they agreed with the second
 statement, opposing affirmative action. Only 19 percent said they agreed with the
 statement supporting affirmative action; 6 percent were undecided.

 Blacks were the only demographic group that favored affirmative action outright in
 both instances -- and they did so by only the slimmest of margins. To the
 question asking about the ballot measure, blacks were 46 percent against the
 measure and 42 percent in favor. This is close enough, in the science of polling,
 to represent a statistical tie.

 Asked specifically about affirmative action, 52 percent of blacks said they favored
 it, while 37 percent were opposed.

 By contrast, whites -- who comprise a majority of registered voters in the state
 and closely match the statewide poll average -- approved the Connerly measure
 with 63 percent for, 24 percent against, and 13 percent undecided.

 IT `HAS TO GO'

 When asked directly if they support affirmative action, 80 percent of whites
 opposed it, 16 percent supported it, and only 4 percent were undecided.

 ``Affirmative action has to go,'' said John Gasque, 52, a white ocean exploration
 company owner who lives in Pinecrest.

 Hispanics polled backed Connerly's measure by 50 percent to 39 percent, with 11
 percent undecided. On the question specifically mentioning affirmative action, 50
 percent said they were opposed, while 34 percent said they favored it; 16 percent
 said they were undecided.

 Schroth, the pollster, agreed with Russell that the ballot language is unclear, and
 said that prompted him to go beyond the language and specifically ask voters
 their opinion on affirmative action.

 But that only generated more opposition to preferences, he said.

 ``The specter of quotas so often raised by affirmative action in the public's
 perception is the problem,'' Schroth said. ``If the group trying to defeat it explains
 to voters that they believe that this is a very deceptive measure . . . then they
 may have some success in making this race closer, although that certainly
 remains to be seen.''
 

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Carl Gutiérrez-Jones
Department of English
University of California, Santa Barbara
e-mail: carlgj@humanitas.ucsb.edu