Affirmative Action Ban a Dead Heat

As debate intensifies over constitutional amendment in Michigan, support wanes.

The Detroit News

By Detroit News Lansing Bureau, Charlie Cain and Mark Hornbeck

June 14, 2006

A November ballot proposal to bar affirmative action from university admissions and government hiring and contracts is in a statistical dead heat, a new Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll shows.

According to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted June 5-9, 43 percent favor the ban and 42 percent oppose it.

"With more discussion and debate over the issue and more people coming out against it, the support has dwindled," pollster Ed Sarpolus said.

The survey results could spell trouble for the proposal. Conventional wisdom says ballot proposals need at least 60 percent backing going into the last few months of a campaign, when support traditionally falls off.

Surveys by other pollsters have tracked a precipitous drop in support for the measure since 2004, when it led by as much as 40 points.

The News/WXYZ poll by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, with an error margin of 4 percentage points, also shows a proposal to guarantee inflationary state funding increases for public schools and universities leading better than 2-1.

Sarpolus said support for the affirmative action ban has plummeted because of the avalanche of opposition from mainstream businesses, religious, labor and civic groups. The opponents are waging an anti-ban campaign on cable TV ads that feature women -- including Detroit Police Chief Ella Bully-Cummings -- talking about what affirmative action programs have meant to their careers.

But Sarpolus said support for the proposal could grow if advocates are able to raise millions to fund TV ads that focus solely on the emotional race issue.

The ballot proposal would ban racial and gender preferences in college admissions and government hiring and contracting. The effect would be to eliminate most public sector affirmative action programs.

Advocates -- including California businessman Ward Connerly, some conservative lawmakers and grass-roots activists -- say the amendment is aimed at ensuring equal treatment for all. Opponents -- a broad coalition that includes the Michigan Catholic Conference, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and the Michigan AFL-CIO -- say it would wipe out decades of civil rights progress for women and minorities.

Jennifer Gratz, executive director of the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative, dismissed the poll numbers.

"When people go into the voting booth and read the language, they will overwhelmingly support it," said Gratz, whose group backs the ban. "The opposition is trying to confuse and scare people. But in the end, voters will see that and vote in favor of equal treatment under the law."

Trisha Stein, executive director of One United Michigan, the opposition group, said the more people understand the proposal the more they oppose it.

"We've seen support for the proposal as high as 70 percent, but when people learn what the proposal really does the support drops," said Stein, whose group has pledged to raise $5 million. "This would ban opportunity for women and roll back progress for Michigan families."

Proposal tackles school funds

Another issue that will attract voter interest in the coming months would guarantee that local schools and state universities get at least inflationary funding increases from the state each year. The poll shows the so-called K-16 coalition proposal leading 63-29.

The initiative has been certified by the Board of State Canvassers and is before the Legislature. If lawmakers fail to act on it, as expected, the proposal goes before voters in November.

Backers say voters see school layoffs -- 10,000 during the past five years -- and program cuts in their communities under current school funding and they want a more stable system.

"Voters understand that education is the key to economic development as well as individual development for kids," said Tom White, chairman of the coalition.

Opponents, including business groups and others who rely on state funding, point to a fiscal analysis that says the proposal would cost the state $1 billion a year.

"That means cuts to other essential service like police and fire protection or tax increases," said Tricia Kinley of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. "Once people get a better understanding of those costs and consequences then support will plummet."

Terri Stapleton, 46, a computer operator and grandmother of six, said schools deserve guaranteed funding.

"On the surface the proposal sounds like a good idea. How else will schools be able to keep up with inflation since we can't pass millage increases like we used to," said Stapleton, of Taylor. "But I really haven't heard much from the other side yet."

The opposition is expected to launch an advertising and education campaign this summer.

Finally, a ballot proposal to bring back a dove hunting season is trailing with 31 percent in favor and 57 percent opposed. Following a century-old ban on dove hunting, the state had a limited dove hunting season in a few counties two years ago. But opponents won a legal stay against hunting doves. A yes vote would allow the hunt; a no vote would continue the ban.

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Carl Gutiérrez-Jones,
Department of English
University of California
Santa Barbara, CA 93106
Email: carlgj@english.ucsb.edu